Since the discussion about artificial intelligence took on completely new dimensions with the publication of ChatGPT and other generative AI models, often accompanied by euphoria about the sheer potential of it, the understanding of risk is becoming clearer with an ever deeper understanding of and the implications of the AI revolution. It is well known that AI will be part of our future and could have a decidedly positive influence, but there is a need for a concrete exchange for the correct implementation, in view of possible, almost dystopian scenarios that are suddenly within reach.
Mustafa Suleyman In “The Coming Wave,” describes humanity's great dilemma of moving in this context today and having to actively write the rules of the future. As an AI researcher and entrepreneur from the very beginning, he has done formative work on the progress of artificial intelligence. After all, the entrepreneur is not only a co-founder of “Deep Mind” — an AI company that was later bought by Google — but also of “Inflection AI.” Another AI company that deals with the technologies that made a splash in the world last year: Machine Learning and Generative AI. You can't deny Suleyman his status as an expert — and if you want to learn how to do it, it's well known from professionals. 😉
What we particularly like about this book is that it comes from someone who is at the center of the AI typhoon — not an author who has read it or an investor who wants to convince. But someone who is very close and tries to take half a step back to take a holistic and thoughtful look at the situation.
Artificial intelligence has always been one of our fundamental fascinations at 55BirchStreet — and since ChatGPT and Co., in particular, we have been active in supporting our customers in adapting the new technology and developing their own solutions. We usually look at the catapult-like access to GenAI and the possibilities of using ever more efficient, cheaper and more powerful technologies from the perspective of digitization enthusiasts.
Suleyman's book was therefore an obvious candidate for our Book Circle, which we were eagerly awaiting. So: Further confirmation of AI or a careful memorial?
The Coming Wave clearly looks ahead, into a world that is being fundamentally changed by artificial intelligence and synthetic biology. That is not speculation, it is already a fact. The change is happening before our very eyes. No one may be prepared, but now is the chance to make the necessary regulations to get the best out of the technology as it evolves at a rapid pace. Suleyman says about this: “The current discourse around technology ethics and safety is inadequate.” (S.11).
Suleyman himself is at the center of this AI revolution, has played his own part in it, and therefore knows that the potential of artificial intelligence is as positive as it is negative, depending on whether it falls into the right hands or not. The latter scenario should not be an option here. In his book, Suleyman primarily discusses the ethical dilemma of artificial intelligence, somewhere between loss of control and incomprehensible potential.
Suleyman brings us closer to this potential, this power and this speed using practical examples from our current reality and shows: This is not science fiction!
“Since the early 1970s, the number of transistors per chip has increased ten-million-fold. Their power has increased by ten orders of magnitude — a seventeen-billion-fold improvement.” (P. 33)
“Eighteen million gigabytes of data are added to the global sum every single minute of every day.” (P. 33)
“No previous wave has mushroomed as quickly, but the historical pattern nonetheless repeats. At first it seems impossible and unimaginable. Then it appears inevitable. And each wave grows bigger and stronger still.” (P. 34)
You can already hear it: It is refreshing that Suleyman does not blindly jump on the hype train and screams into the airwaves in some bizarre Silicon Valley logic about how incredibly crass and awesome that actually becomes, but also gives the concrete warning that this would make you sleepwalk into mere disaster. One factor is that developers and inventors quickly lose control of what they have created and at a certain point there is no turning back, no stopping and only difficult containment.
In the course of the book, Suleyman gives explicit examples of how artificial intelligence could improve our quality of life, but is equally careful where there is a risk of making a wrong turn. And above all, what he believes needs to be done to comply with this caution.
prudence It may even be the sounding motif in The Coming Wave. The fundamental problem, as far as Suleyman is concerned, is not that malicious people with bad intentions misuse artificial intelligence for their own purposes (although that is to be expected, of course). Rather, it becomes more critical when good intentions cause significant damage. Such a clear motive that this warning cannot be mentioned often enough.
“As we stand at this turning point, we are faced with a choice — a choice between a future of unparalleled possibility and a future of unimaginable peril.” (prologue)
“This is not about bad actors weaponizing technology; this is about unintended consequences from good people who want to improve health outcomes.” (P. 176)
“AI is both valuable and dangerous precisely because it's an extension of our best and worst self.” (P. 210)
It goes without saying that there is much to discuss in this regard.
The Coming Wave is unfortunately extremely repetitive. So much so that some people slapped their hands over their faces and complained: “I understand.” One of our most common statements in book reviews: The book could have been more concise and simply shorter.
A conclusion that we regret, because Suleyman did a good job in terms of content! The examples are insightful and exciting, presented in a methodology that is no less scientific than practical and comes alive with successful storytelling. Suleyman does not hesitate to critically examine his own work and thus offers an authentic insight into the contingencies of artificial intelligence without cultivating excessive panic or euphoria (which is adjacent here and there).
It should not be ignored that this certainly increases certain fears. Suleyman is clearly calling on a “globally collaborative we” to take action and pull together. But to be honest, when did we ever do that? In the current political situation, however, this need for action, which we are actually exposed to, can be largely answered with bird ostrich tactics instead: “Spend time in tech or policy circles, and it quickly becomes obvious that head-in-the-sand is the default ideology. ” (P.15).
Some Birchies found The Coming Wave outstanding, some too negative, others just weren't really carried away, but overall we can say: We've definitely learned something.
Of course, we would like to put our newly acquired knowledge and perspectives up for discussion. Once you get off hypetrain and reappear from this book, you can take a differentiated look at the implications of an AI-led future, with all its dangers and potentials of both. The result: an increased sense of responsibility within our team. It seems to be the central consensus of our debate that not only AI but also the discussion about it must be promoted.
These are our most important learnings and findings:
Overall, we have already recommended The Coming Wave extensively — because it affects us all: That could be a South African farmer or a German pensioner. And yes, we have already recommended the book to both of them 😉 We hereby recommend it to you too!
What do you think of The Coming Wave? We are looking forward to the exchange! 🤖
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